EUR/USD - Euro Dollar, European Session - 19/12/08

Voici l'analyse forex de mataf concernant la paire de devise Euro / Dollar US (EUR/USD)

1,4213. EUR USD est dans une tendance haussiere support?e par les moyennes mobiles exponentielles 1H. EUR USD est en consolidation apr?s le dernier mouvement haussier. La volatilit? est forte. Le ForexTrend 4H (Indicateur de tendance) est dans une configuration haussi?re. La consolidation devrait se poursuivre. Le cours devrait continuer ? ?voluer dans le range 1,4000 / 1,4700.
Nous restons ? l'?cart. Le ratio risque/rendement nous semble d?favorable pour prendre position.. Resistances1,4325 - 1,4500Supports1,4190 - 1,4000








Source : Mataf

Over the past week, the dollar has maintained its high-level volatility; but the pace of the market still has not translated into direction. This is partially a consequence of thin liquidity through the end of the summer and into the long, holiday weekend; but the same general affliction for the broader speculative market suggests the unusual calm has deeper fundamental roots.[dailyfx]

The Euro takes center stage with the European Central Bank set to announce interest rates and update their economic outlook for the Euro Zone. UK Services PMI and EZ Retail Sales are also on tap.

P&F EURUSD1 Box Size 4X4 or(0.11%) CLOSE
Data 1.4311 - 1.4194 ~ 0 Month ~ 1.05 Day
Database 1500 records 1.42956 (Last Close)
2009-09-02 08~30
2009-09-03 09~41 (GMT+01:00) Paris

BJF Trading Group

1.4312|~4||||_____________________________________ _____________________|-0.01%|0.83%
1.4308|~8||||_____________________________________ _________________x___|0.02%|0.8%
1.4304|~12|||_____________________________________ _________________x_o_|0.05%|0.77%
1.4300|~16|||_____________________________________ _________________x_o_|0.08%|0.75%
1.4296|~2O|||_____________________________________ _________________x_o_|0.1%|0.72%
1.4292|~24|||_____________________________________ _____x___________x_o_|0.13%|0.69%
1.4288|~28|||_____________________________________ _x___x_o_________x_o_|0.16%|0.66%
1.4284|~32|||_____________________________________ _x_o_x_o_________x_o_|0.19%|0.63%
1.4280|~36|||_____________________________________ _x_o_x_o_____x___x___|0.22%|0.61%
1.4276|~4O|||_____________________________________ _x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x___|0.24%|0.58%
1.4272|~44|||_____________________________________ _x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|0.27%|0.55%
1.4268|~48|||_____________________________________ _x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|0.3%|0.52%
1.4264|~52|||_____________________________________ _x_o___o_x_o_x_o_____|0.33%|0.49%
1.4260|~56|||_____________________________________ _x_____o_x_o_x_______|0.36%|0.46%
1.4256|~6O|||__________________________________x__ _x_____o___o_x_______|0.38%|0.44%
1.4252|~64|||__________________________________x_o _x_________o_________|0.41%|0.41%
1.4248|~68|||__________________________________x_o _x___________________|0.44%|0.38%
1.4244|~72|||__x_______________________________x_o _x___________________|0.47%|0.35%
1.4240|~76|||__x_o_____________________________x_o _____________________|0.5%|0.32%
1.4236|~8O|||__x_o_____x_______________________x__ _____________________|0.52%|0.3%
1.4232|~84|||__x_o_____x_o_____________________x__ _____________________|0.55%|0.27%
1.4228|~88|||__x_o_x___x_o_____________________x__ _____________________|0.58%|0.24%
1.4224|~92|||__x_o_x_o_x_o_____________________x__ _____________________|0.61%|0.21%
1.4220|~96|||o___o_x_o_x_o_____x___________x___x__ _____________________|0.64%|0.18%
1.4216|~1OO||____o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_____x___x_o_x__ _____________________|0.66%|0.15%
1.4212|~1O4||____o_x_o___o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x__ _____________________|0.69%|0.13%
1.4208|~1O8||____o_______o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x__ _____________________|0.72%|0.1%
1.4204|~112||____________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x__ _____________________|0.75%|0.07%
1.4200|~116||____________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_x__ _____________________|0.78%|0.04%
1.4196|~12O||________________o___o_x_o_x_____o_x__ _____________________|0.8%|0.01%
1.4192|~124||____________________o___o_______o____ _____________________|0.83%|-0.01%
Column|~128||1_6_9_5_4_6_9_4_5_6_7_4_4_6_4_5_7_164 _126_7_9_5_6_7_4_116_|
Count

PDF

P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 1450X3 or(3.14%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 69 Month ~ 2107 Day
Database 1500 records 1.46751 (Last Close)
2003-12-15 00~00
2009-09-21 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group

1.6095|~145||_____________________________________ ____|-0.36%|38.29%
1.5950|~29O||__________________X___X______________ ____|0.55%|37.04%
1.5805|~435||________________X_XoX_Xo_____________ ____|1.45%|35.79%
1.5660|~58O||________________XoXoXoXo_____________ ____|2.36%|34.55%
1.5515|~725||________________XoXoXoXo_____________ ____|3.26%|33.3%
1.5370|~87O||________________Xo_o_o_o_____________ ____|4.17%|32.06%
1.5225|~1O15|________________X______o_____________ ____|5.07%|30.81%
1.5080|~116O|________________X______o_____________ ____|5.97%|29.56%
1.4935|~13O5|____________X_X_X______o_____________ ____|6.88%|28.32%
1.4790|~145O|____________XoXoX______oX____________ ____|7.78%|27.07%
1.4645|~1595|============XoXoX======oXo======X==== ===X|8.69%|25.83%
1.4500|~174O|____________XoXo_______oXo______Xo___ ___X|9.59%|24.58%
1.4355|~1885|____________Xo_________oXo______Xo___ ___X|10.49%|23.34%
1.4210|~2O3O|____________X__________oXo______Xo___ _X_X|11.4%|22.09%
1.4065|~2175|____________X__________oXo______Xo___ _XoX|12.3%|20.84%
1.3920|~232O|____________X__________o_o______Xo___ _XoX|13.21%|19.6%
1.3775|~2465|____________X____________o______XoX__ _Xo_|14.11%|18.35%
1.3630|~261O|__X_________X____________o______XoXoX _X__|15.01%|17.11%
1.3485|~2755|__Xo________X____________o______XoXoX oX__|15.92%|15.86%
1.3340|~29OO|__XoX_____X_X____________o______Xo_oX oX__|16.82%|14.61%
1.3195|~3O45|__XoXo____XoX____________oX_____X__oX oX__|17.73%|13.37%
1.3050|~319O|__XoXo____XoX____________oXoX_X_X__oX oX__|18.63%|12.12%
1.2905|~3335|X_XoXo__X_Xo_____________oXoXoXoX__oX o___|19.53%|10.88%
1.2760|~348O|XoXo_o__XoX______________oXoXoXoX__oX ____|20.44%|9.63%
1.2615|~3625|XoX__o__XoX______________oXo_oXo___oX ____|21.34%|8.39%
1.2470|~377O|XoX__oX_Xo_______________o___o_____o_ ____|22.25%|7.14%
1.2325|~3915|_oX__oXoX____________________________ ____|23.15%|5.89%
1.2180|~4O6O|_oX__oXoX____________________________ ____|24.06%|4.65%
1.2035|~42O5|_oX__oXoX____________________________ ____|24.96%|3.4%
1.1890|~435O|_o___o_oX____________________________ ____|25.86%|2.16%
1.1745|~4495|_______o_____________________________ ____|26.77%|0.91%
1.1600|~464O|_____________________________________ ____|27.67%|-0.34%
Column|~4785|4716414583631443934433416154344319398 5936|
Count|~||||||__2__O______4__________4_6______4____ ____|

As noted before, while further rise to 100% projection of 1.4177 to 1.4842 from 1.4483 at
1.5148 cannot be ruled out, upside would likely be limited there and bring pull back. Below
1.4884 minor support will indicate that a short term top should at least be formed with bearish
divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Deeper decline should be seen to 1.4483 support
in this case.

In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1.4867 resistance argues that whole fall from 1.6039
has completed at 1.2329 already and rise from there is still in progress. At this point, there
is no sign of topping yet and the current rally could extend further for retesting 1.6039 high.
Nevertheless, as we're not seeing a clear impulsive structure in the current rally, we'd expect
upside to be limited there and bring another medium term fall to continue the wide range
consolidation from from 1.6039. On the downside, break of 1.4483 support will be the first sign
that rise from 1.2456 has completed. Further break of 1.3747 support will confirm and turn
focus back to 1.2329/2456 support zone.[actionforex]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 48 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.50189 (Last Close)
2005-10-07 00~00
2009-10-23 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group"

1.6050|~15O||____________________________________________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||__________________x___x___x_________________________________|0.86%|36.61%
1.5750|~45O||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|1.8%|35.32%
1.5600|~6OO||__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_______________________________|2.73%|34.03%
1.5450|~75O||__________________x_o___o_x_o_______________________________|3.67%|32.74%
1.5300|~9OO||__________________x_____o___o_______________________________|4.6%|31.45%
1.5150|~1O5O|__________________x_________o_______________________________|5.54%|30.17%
1.5000|~12OO|__________________x_________o_____________________________x_|6.47%|28.88%
1.4850|~135O|==========x===x===x=========o=x===========================x=|7.41%|27.59%
1.4700|~15OO|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x___________x_|8.34%|26.3%
1.4550|~165O|__________x_o_x_o_x_________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|9.28%|25.01%
1.4400|~18OO|__________x_o___o___________o_x_o_____________x_o_________x_|10.21%|23.72%
1.4250|~195O|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x___x_|11.15%|22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|__________x_________________o_x_o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|12.08%|21.14%
1.3950|~225O|__________x_________________o___o_____________x_o_____x_o_x_|13.02%|19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_____x_o___|13.95%|18.57%
1.3650|~255O|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x___x_____|14.89%|17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|__________x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|15.82%|15.99%
1.3350|~285O|______x___x_____________________o_____________x_o_x_o_x_____|16.76%|14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|______x_o_x_____________________o_x___________x_o_x_o_x_____|17.7%|13.41%
1.3050|~315O|______x_o_x_____________________o_x_o_x___x___x_o_x_o_x_____|18.63%|12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|______x_o_______________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_______|19.57%|10.83%
1.2750|~345O|______x_________________________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________|20.5%|9.55%
1.2600|~36OO|______x_________________________o_x_o___o_x_o___o___________|21.44%|8.26%
1.2450|~375O|______x_________________________o_______o___________________|22.37%|6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|__x___x_____________________________________________________|23.31%|5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|__x_o_x_____________________________________________________|24.24%|4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|o_x_o_x_____________________________________________________|25.18%|3.1%
1.1850|~435O|o_x_o_______________________________________________________|26.11%|1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|o___________________________________________________________|27.05%|0.52%
1.1550|~465O|____________________________________________________________|27.98%|-0.76%
Column|~48OO|3_4_3_103_133_3_3_103_3_4_4_136_165_4_3_4_4_3_14147_5_9_3_8_|

Excel_EurUsd_091023.zip

The estimated test of key resistance range levels has been confirmed, but relative rise in buying activity, marked by OsMA trend indicator, did not favor immediate implementation of the pre-planned short positions. Nevertheless, in the bigger picture, considering close parity of both party activity while rate is contained within the borders of Ichimoku cloud, we can assume probability of rate range movement with attainment of close border of the cloud at 1,4980/1,5000 levels, where it is recommended to evaluate the development of the activity of both parties in accordance with the charts of a shorter time interval. As for short-term sales on condition of the formation of topping signals the targets will be 1,4920/40 and (or) further break-out variant up to 1,4860/80, 1,4800/20. The alternative for buyers will be above 1,5080 with the targets of 1,5120/40, 1,5180/1,5200, 1,5240/60.[actionforex]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 150X3 or(3.25%) HI/LO
Data 1.6038 - 1.1639 ~ 49 Month ~ 1477 Day
Database 1050 records 1.4974 (Last Close)
2005-10-31 00~00
2009-11-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6050|~15O||_____________________________|-0.07%|37.9%
1.5900|~3OO||________X_X_X________________|0.86%|[b]36.61%
1.5750|~45O||________XoXoXo_______________|1.8%|35 .32%
1.5600|~6OO||________XoXoXo_______________|2.73%|3 4.03%
1.5450|~75O||________Xo_oXo_______________|3.67%|3 2.74%
1.5300|~9OO||________X__o_o_______________|4.6%|31 .45%
1.5150|~1O5O|________X____o_______________|5.54%|3 0.17%
1.5000|~12OO|________X____o______________X|6.47%|2 8.88%
1.4850|~135O|____X_X_X____oX_____________X|7.41%|2 7.59%
1.4700|~15OO|____XoXoX____oXo______X_____X|8.34%|2 6.3%
1.4550|~165O|____XoXoX____oXo______Xo____X|9.28%|2 5.01%
1.4400|~18OO|____Xo_o_____oXo______Xo____X|10.21%| 23.72%
1.4250|~195O|____X________oXo______Xo__X_X|11.15%| 22.43%
1.4100|~21OO|____X________oXo______Xo__XoX|12.08%| 21.14%
1.3950|~225O|____X________o_o______Xo__XoX|13.02%| 19.86%
1.3800|~24OO|____X__________o______Xo__Xo_|13.95%| 18.57%
1.3650|~255O|____X__________o______XoX_X__|14.89%| 17.28%
1.3500|~27OO|____X__________o______XoXoX__|15.82%| 15.99%
1.3350|~285O|__X_X__________o______XoXoX__|16.76%| 14.7%
1.3200|~3OOO|__XoX__________oX_____XoXoX__|17.7%|1 3.41%
1.3050|~315O|__XoX__________oXoX_X_XoXoX__|18.63%| 12.12%
1.2900|~33OO|__Xo___________oXoXoXoXoXo___|19.57%| 10.83%
1.2750|~345O|__X____________oXoXoXoXoX____|20.5%|9 .55%
1.2600|~36OO|__X____________oXo_oXo_o_____|21.44%| 8.26%
1.2450|~375O|__X____________o___o_________|22.37%| 6.97%
1.2300|~39OO|X_X__________________________|23.31%| 5.68%
1.2150|~4O5O|XoX__________________________|24.24%| 4.39%
1.2000|~42OO|XoX__________________________|25.18%| 3.1%
1.1850|~435O|Xo___________________________|26.11%| 1.81%
1.1700|~45OO|_____________________________|27.05%| 0.52%
1.1550|~465O|_____________________________|27.98%|-0.76%
Column|~48OO|43131333133441615434431175938|
Count|~495O||__O_3___O____3_6______44_____|




BJF-Trading-Group-091116_eurusd4H.xls

EUR/USD's sharp fall from 1.5143 extends further to as low as 1.4828 today and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the downside as long as 1.4941 minor resistance holds and further decline should be seen to 1.4801 support first. Break there will confirm that whole rise from 1.4626 has completed and will turn short term outlook bearish for deeper decline to 1.4626 support next. On the upside, above 1.4941 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1.5143 is sharp, there is no clear confirmation of medium term reversal yet. Nevertheless, a break of 1.4626 support will be an important indicate that whole medium term rise from 1.2456 has completed and deeper decline should then be seen to 1.3747 support for confirmation. On the upside, above 1.5143 resistance will indicate that some more rally should be seen before EUR/USD tops.[actionforex]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 250X3 or(6.06%) CLOSE
Data 1.5997 - 0.8747 ~ 91 Month ~ 2794 Day
Database 2000 records 1.49869 (Last Close)
2002-04-04 00~00
2009-11-27 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.6000|~25O||____________________________________|-0.02%|82.92%
1.5750|~5OO||__________________x_________________| 1.54%|80.06%
1.5500|~75O||__________________x_o_______________| 3.11%|77.2%
1.5250|~1OOO|__________________x_o_______________| 4.67%|74.35%
1.5000|~125O|__________________x_o_____________x_| 6.23%|71.49%
1.4750|~15OO|__________________x_o_x___________x_| 7.8%|68.63%
1.4500|~175O|__________________x_o_x_o_________x_| 9.36%|65.77%
1.4250|~2OOO|__________________x_o_x_o_x_______x_| 10.92%|62.91%
1.4000|~225O|__________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_| 12.48%|60.05%
1.3750|~25OO|__________________x_o___o_x_o_____x_| 14.05%|57.2%
1.3500|~275O|__________x_______x_____o_x_o_x___x_| 15.61%|54.34%
1.3250|~3OOO|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_| 17.17%|51.48%
1.3000|~325O|__________x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o_x_| 18.73%|48.62%
1.2750|~35OO|______x___x_o_____x_____o_x_o_x_o___| 20.3%|45.76%
1.2500|~375O|______x_o_x_o_x___x_____o_x_o_______| 21.86%|42.91%
1.2250|~4OOO|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_____o___________| 23.42%|40.05%
1.2000|~425O|______x_o_x_o_x_o_x_________________| 24.99%|37.19%
1.1750|~45OO|__x___x_o___o___o_x_________________| 26.55%|34.33%
1.1500|~475O|__x_o_x_________o___________________| 28.11%|31.47%
1.1250|~5OOO|__x_o_x_____________________________| 29.67%|28.62%
1.1000|~525O|__x_o_x_____________________________| 31.24%|25.76%
1.0750|~55OO|__x_o_______________________________| 32.8%|22.9%
1.0500|~575O|__x_________________________________| 34.36%|20.04%
1.0250|~6OOO|__x_________________________________| 35.93%|17.18%
1.0000|~625O|__x_________________________________| 37.49%|14.32%
0.9750|~65OO|__x_________________________________| 39.05%|11.47%
0.9500|~675O|__x_________________________________| 40.61%|8.61%
0.9250|~7OOO|__x_________________________________| 42.18%|5.75%
0.9000|~725O|o_x_________________________________| 43.74%|2.89%
0.8750|~75OO|o___________________________________| 45.3%|0.03%
0.8500|~775O|o___________________________________| 46.87%|-2.82%
Column|~8OOO|3_124_8_4_7_7_3_4_178_4_108_7_4_3_9_|
Count




BJF-Trading-Group-EURUSD_091128mix.xls

The second week of the New Year did not offer much in terms of breakouts from the recent consolidation ranges. Fundamentals reflect a slow recovery and risk appetite also remained subdued this week after some initial rally. Let's take a look at some major currency pairs.
EUR/USD Stalking Consolidation
Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD is heading back to the support of its consolidation. The stochastic in the daily has crossed and today’s price action seems to be very aggressive, though we still have a few hours to go.
Looking at the 4H time-frame, it will be interesting to see if the 78.6% retracement level at 1.4330 can hold. This may give way to a throwback scenario, which does not have to reach 1.4450, but it is a preferred scenario as this will make this previous support into resistance.
If the decline then continues a swing, it is projected to the 1.4200 area. If 1.4200 breaks, this is the decline to start the continuation towards the 1.37-1.38 area (61.8% retracement in the daily time-frame).[Written by CMS Forex]

"P&F EURUSD1440 Box Size 75X3 or(1.6%) HI/LO
Data 1.5135 - 1.2924 ~ 9 Month ~ 275 Day
Database 1050 records 1.4387 (Last Close)
2009-04-15 00~00
2010-01-15 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

1.5150|~75|||____________________________|-0.1%|17.22%
1.5075|~15O||_______________________X_X__|0.4%|16. 64%
1.5000|~225||_____________________X_XoXo_|0.89%|16 .06%
1.4925|~3OO||_____________________XoXoXo_|1.39%|15 .48%
1.4850|~375||_____________________XoXo_o_|1.88%|14 .9%
1.4775|~45O||___________________X_XoX__o_|2.38%|14 .32%
1.4700|~525||___________________XoXoX__o_|2.87%|13 .74%
1.4625|~6OO||___________________XoXo___o_|3.37%|13 .16%
1.4550|~675||===================Xo=====oX|3.87%|12 .58%
1.4475|~75O||___________________X______oX|4.36%|12 %
1.4400|~825||_______________X_X_X______oX|4.86%|11 .42%
1.4325|~9OO||_______X_______XoXoX______oX|5.35%|10 .84%
1.4250|~975||=======Xo====X=XoXoX======o=|5.85%|10 .26%
1.4175|~1O5O|_______XoX_X_XoXoXo_________|6.34%|9. 68%
1.4100|~1125|_______XoXoXoXoXo___________|6.84%|9. 1%
1.4025|~12OO|_____X_XoXoXoXo_____________|7.33%|8. 52%
1.3950|~1275|_____XoXoXoXoX______________|7.83%|7. 94%
1.3875|~135O|_____XoXo_oXo_______________|8.33%|7. 36%
1.3800|~1425|_____Xo___o_________________|8.82%|6. 78%
1.3725|~15OO|_____X______________________|9.32%|6. 2%
1.3650|~1575|___X_X______________________|9.81%|5. 62%
1.3575|~165O|___XoX______________________|10.31%|5 .04%
1.3500|~1725|___XoX______________________|10.8%|4. 46%
1.3425|~18OO|___Xo_______________________|11.3%|3. 88%
1.3350|~1875|___X________________________|11.79%|3 .3%
1.3275|~195O|_X_X________________________|12.29%|2 .72%
1.3200|~2O25|_XoX________________________|12.78%|2 .14%
1.3125|~21OO|_XoX________________________|13.28%|1 .56%
1.3050|~2175|oXoX________________________|13.78%|0 .97%
1.2975|~225O|oXo_________________________|14.27%|0 .39%
1.2900|~2325|o___________________________|14.77%|-0.19%
Column|||||||3549383764554535443836563314|
Count||||||||__________________________1_|



BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart