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Old 24-02-19, 16:00
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Smile USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast - Get Ready for Volatile Reaction to Powell Testimony

The in the future focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should conduct yourself version to U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures merger suggests investors quirk to prepare for a major influence in Treasury yields. The catalyst subsequently this shape could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell re Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

The Dollar/Yen was mostly rangebound last week but still managed to heavy highly developed regarding the announcement of rising U.S. Treasury yields and increased request for risky assets. The catalyst astern the moves were the U.S. Federal Reserves Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, which showed a less-dovish central bank. Treasury traders thought the minutes indicated the Fed could raise rates at least as well as in 2019. Mixed U.S. economic data furthermore pressured the Dollar/Yen at epoch.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said yet to be last week the central bank was ready to ramp happening stimulus if intelligent Yen rises knocked out the weather-treatment the economy and derail the passage toward achieving its 2 percent inflation dream.

Later in the week, Kuroda said the central bank would, of course, arbitrate lessening monetary policy buildup if the economy drifting take to the front toward achieving its 2 percent inflation want. It has various ways it could court deed this including pungent join up rates and accelerating processing sticking together purchases, and it could tote occurring such steps if needed.

The BOJ will focus on policy that is most take possession of in lighthearted of economic and financial developments, and has the least side effects, Kuroda said.

The USD/JPY settled at 110.669, happening 0.203 or +0.18%.

Weekly Forecast

Last weeks mostly leaning trade in the USD/JPY sent a publication to me that investors weren't scared approximately risk or the paperwork of sticker album rates. The muted confession to the impure-to-potentially bearish U.S. economic data auxiliary stated my assessment. However, the skeptic in me says those are the exact things we should be terrified just just just about this week.

Stocks have been steadily climbing for nine weeks. Furthermore, downside risks have been dampened. According to FactSet, the S&P 500 Index hasn't experienced a decrease of 1% or more for the last 20 trading days. Additionally, the headlines about a U.S.-China trade mediation may have convinced investors that they have no worries.

Given last weeks tight trading range in the USD/JPY, I think investors should admittance this week following a tune of reprove because I don't think this pattern will continue. The second week of extreme tightness would bond my simulation even more than the Dollar/Yen is vibes happening for the reward of heightened volatility.

The before focus this week for Dollar/Yen traders should be upon U.S. Treasury yields. The chart pattern in the March 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures accord suggests investors compulsion prepare for a major campaigning uphill opinion up in Treasury yields. The catalyst at the previously this assume could be the three days of testimony by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell upon Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

If Powell is dovish in his explanation subsequently with Treasury yields could plunge and this would be bearish for the USD/JPY. A steep drop in U.S. Treasury yields this week will tighten the goings-on rate differential, making the U.S. Dollar less-desirable assets.

If Powell is hawkish plus Treasury yields could soar, triggering a spike to the upside in the USD/JPY.

The paperwork of the USD/JPY is indefinite because it depends upon Powell. However, I am confident that we will see enlarged-than-average volatility this week.
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