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Old 23-04-14, 12:08
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Default Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EURUSD

The single currency bounced after yesterday’s attempt at near-term range floor left marginally lower low at 1.3784. Cracking important resistance at 1.3830, 21 Apr high / main bear-trendline off 1.3904 peak / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3863/1.3784 downleg, confirms base at 1.3790 zone and brings the price back to the range. Improved hourly structure sees potential for eventual push towards 1.3863, 17 Apr lower top and range top, regain of which to confirm double-bottom formation on 4-hour chart and re-focus key near-term barrier at 1.3904, 11 Apr peak. However, still weak 4-hour studies require caution and keep in play risk of possible stall and lower top formation under 1.3904. Corrective pullbacks off fresh highs should not exceed 1.38 support, to keep freshly established near-term bulls in play.

Res: 1.3850; 1.3863; 1.3904; 1.3941
Sup: 1.3800; 1.3784; 1.3760; 1.3736





GBPUSD

Cable trades in consolidative mode after probing levels above short-term congestion tops at 1.6820 and posting fresh multi-year high at 1.6841. Positive near-term tone keeps the upside in focus, as the price attempted again at the recent peak. Also, positive 4-hour studies support the notion, with eventual break above 1.6841 peak, required to resume larger rally and avert risk of deeper reversal, signaled by bearish MACD / RSI divergence formation. Break above 1.6841 to open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900, round figure resistance in extension. Conversely, extension below initial support and consolidation floor at 1.6773, would signal corrective action, while only break below 1.67 higher base and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6841 upleg, would revive near-term bears for stronger pullback.

Res: 1.6841; 1.6877; 1.6900; 1.6950
Sup: 1.6773; 1.6750; 1.6720; 1.6700





USDJPY

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates recent gains after extension from 101.85 higher low, so far tested 102.71, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31. Further advance remains favored, with next barriers laying at 102.89, 100SMA and 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily cloud top, clearance of which to re-confirm 101.20/30 base and resume rally from 101.31, 11 Apr low. Bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover at 102.20 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.32/102.71 upleg, underpins the action and is seen as ideal reversal point in case of stronger pullback. Only loss of 101.85 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.31/102.71 upleg, would bring near-term bears back in play and risk retest of 101.20 base. Negatively aligned daily studies would keep the downside at risk while 103 barrier caps recovery attempts.

Res: 102.71; 102.89; 103.00; 103.29
Sup: 102.40; 102.20; 102.00; 101.85





AUDUSD

The price accelerated reversal off 0.9460 peak after leaving lower top at 0.9377 and lost pivotal 0.9300 support, on a dip to 0.9272 so far. As hourly studies turned negative and 4-hour indicators remain in the negative territory, downside risk remains in play. Extension to the next strong support and breakpoint at 0.92 zone, 03 Apr higher low, reinforced by main bull-trendline, drawn off 0.8658, is seen as likely near-term scenario. Reversing daily indicators support the notion of deeper corrective action, as a part of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 19 Jan year-to-date low. Corrective rallies on oversold hourly conditions face initial 0.9300 barrier, ahead of previous consolidation floor at 0.9315, with extensions higher to be ideally capped under 0.9340, 61.8% of the fall from 0.9375, to keep bears intact. Upside pivot lies at 0.9375 and only break here to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 0.9300; 0.9315; 0.9340; 0.9375
Sup: 0.9273; 0.9253; 0.9200; 0.9150






GOLD

Spot Gold eventually cracked important 1277 support, 1 Apr low / 100SMA and fully retraced bull-phase off 1277 that peaked at 1330. Clear break lower is required to confirm lower top at 1330, 14 Apr high and signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1392, 17 Mar peak. According to the wave principles, the third wave that commenced from 1330, could extend to its 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1258, just under Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend at 1262 and could travel to 1212, its 100% expansion. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and keeps the downside favored in the near-term. Corrective actions should be ideally limited under 1300, psychological barrier and 20/200SMA’s death cross.

Res: 1288; 1293; 1300; 1306
Sup: 1276; 1262; 1258; 1240





SILVER

Spot Silver remains directionless after unsuccessful attempts at the both sides of near-term range. Hourly studies are flat, however, positive tone persists on 4-hour chart that keeps hopes of renewed attempts higher, where 20.37, 10 Apr rally peak and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, offer initial barriers and pivotal points. Sustained break here is required to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, downside will remain at risk, as larger picture studies remain bearish and risk further weakness for completion of 18.99/22.15 ascend, with the notion being supported by triple MA’s bear-crosses, 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 / 20/100 SMA’s bearish crosses.

Res: 20.12; 20.19; 20.37; 20.40
Sup: 19.90; 19.77; 19.60; 19.56
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