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Old 14-04-14, 12:36
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Default Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EURUSD

The Euro came under pressure after overnight’s gap lower opening which followed last Friday’s test of 1.39 barrier and hesitation, confirmed by Doji candle. Weakened hourly studies see risk of further easing that should be viewed as corrective phase of larger uptrend, with notion confirmed by 4-hour indicators reversing form overbought territory. Extension of Asian narrow range trading would threaten test of strong 1.3820/00 support zone, where previous tops of 01/02 Apr lay, along with Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3671/1.3904 upleg and support being reinforced by broken bear-trendline, drawn off 1.3965 peak and daily Kijun-sen line. Ideally, dips should find support around 1.38 handle and above 1.3779, 09 Apr higher low / daily Tenkan-sen line, to keep near-term bullish structure intact for renewed attempt through 1.3900 hurdle and eventual test of key 1.3965 barrier, 13 Mar peak. Violation of 1.3779 and Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.3760, would sideline near-term bulls and shift near-term focus lower.

Res: 1.3859; 1.3900; 1.3946; 1.3965
Sup: 1.3820; 1.3800; 1.3779; 1.3760






GBPUSD

Cable trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh high at 1.6819, after fresh bulls completed 1.6821/1.6464 corrective phase. Pullback was so far contained at 1.6715, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6548/1.6819 upleg / broken bear-channel upper line, where dips should be ideally contained. Overall picture remains positive and favors final push through 1.6821 peak, to resume broader bull-trend on extension of the third wave from 1.6548, 04 Apr higher low, to 1.6849, its 138.2% Fibonacci expansion and 1.6900, Fibonacci expansion 161.8%, in extension, once corrective phase is completed. However, risk of further consolidation and possible deeper corrective action is seen on overextended studies on 4-hour chart, as Evening star pattern is formed on a daily chart. Break below 1.6715 support to open 1.6684, 31 Mar previous peak and 50% retracement and 1.6652, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement in extension.


Res: 1.6748; 1.6790; 1.6821; 1.6849
Sup: 1.6715; 1.6683; 1.6652; 1.6600






USDJPY

The pair trades in near-term sideways mode, consolidating recent losses that found temporary support at 101.31. Near-term studies are bearish and look for final attack at strong 101.20 base, to fully retrace 101.20/ 104.11 bull-leg and open way towards key short-term support at 100.74, 04 Feb low. However, hesitation on approach to key support levels, should be anticipated, as 4-hour studies are reversing from oversold zone and suggest further consolidative action. Signal of stronger recovery attempt requires bounce above 102.14, 09 Apr lower platform reinforced daily cloud base, to sideline immediate downside risk and open way for stronger recovery towards Fibonacci barriers at 102.38 and 102.71, 38.2% / 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31 descend , with psychological 103 barrier, also double MA’s bear-cross, and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, expected to cap stronger rallies.

Res: 101.86; 102.14; 102.38; 102.71
Sup: 101.31; 101.20; 100.74; 100.00





AUDUSD

The pair corrects fresh bulls that peaked at 0.9460 last week, with near-term price action consolidating above the pullback low and 38.2% retracement of 0.9204/0.9460 upleg at 0.9360, also broken channel resistance line. Overall positive sentiment keeps the upside still in play for eventual test of next targets at 0.9477, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 0.8889 and 0.9500, round-figure resistance / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend. However, hourly studies are losing traction, while 4-hour indicators are descending from overbought territory that may delay bulls for further consolidative/corrective action. Previous peaks and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9204/0.9460 at 0.9300, should contain stronger pullbacks.

Res: 0.9425; 0.9460; 0.9477; 0.9500
Sup: 0.9362; 0.9332; 0.9300; 0.9253






GOLD

Spot Gold remains supported and resumed near-term uptrend after clearing last Thu/Fri consolidation tops at 1324. Immediate targets lay at 1334, 50% retracement of 1392/1277 descend and 1342, 21 Mar lower high. Positively aligned near-term technicals support the scenario, with 1324 now offering initial support. Further down, Friday’s correction low and previous consolidation peaks at 1313, offer strong support and should keep the downside protected.

Res: 1334; 1342; 1348; 1354
Sup: 1324; 1313; 1309; 1300




SILVER

Spot Silver remains directionless after unsuccessful attempts at the both sides of near-term range. Hourly studies are flat, however, positive tone persists on 4-hour chart that keeps hopes of renewed attempts higher, where 20.37, 10 Apr rally peak and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, offer initial barriers and pivotal points. Sustained break here is required to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, downside will remain at risk, as larger picture studies remain bearish and risk further weakness for completion of 18.99/22.15 ascend, with the notion being supported by triple MA’s bear-crosses, 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 / 20/100 SMA’s bearish crosses.

Res: 20.12; 20.19; 20.37; 20.40
Sup: 19.90; 19.77; 19.60; 19.56
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