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Old 09-04-14, 13:00
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Default Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EURUSD

The Euro returned to strength, with fresh acceleration of recovery from 1.3671, 04 Apr low, probing above psychological 1.380 barrier. The rally was capped just under pivotal 1.3820 resistance, 02 Apr previous high / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3671 rally and bear-channel resistance. Positive near-term technicals are supportive for eventual break here, to confirm near-term bottom and open way for further recovery towards 1.3853, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and lower top of 24 Mar at 1.3874. Corrective actions on overbought near-term studies are expected to precede fresh push higher, with 1.3750/60 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3671/1.3810 rally and previous base of 20/25 Mar, seen as ideal reversal point. Any weakness below 1.3740 higher platform / daily cloud top and rally’s mid-point, would delay immediate bulls.

Res: 1.3810; 1.3820; 1.3853; 1.3874
Sup: 1.3777; 1.3757; 1.3740; 1.3724






GBPUSD

Cable surged yesterday, leaving higher base at 1.6548 and resuming the bull-phase off 1.6464, 24 Mar low, after clearing 1.6683, 31 Mar previous top. Break above bear-channel resistance and completion of inverted head-and shoulders pattern on 4-hour chart, sees scope for eventual push towards 1.6784, 07 Mar lower top and attack at key near-term barrier at 1.6821, 17 Feb peak. Near-term studies are positive, however, overbought conditions suggest pause ahead of fresh push higher, with previous peaks at 1.6716 and 1.6683 offering immediate supports. Further dips should be ideally contained at 1.6650, 50% retracement of 1.6548/1.6753 upleg / daily Tenkan-sen line, to keep the structure intact. Conversely, slide below previous barriers at 1.6620/00, reinforced by daily cloud top, will be bearish.

Res: 1.6753; 1.6784; 1.6800; 1.6821
Sup: 1.6716; 1.6683; 1.6650; 1.6620







USDJPY

The pair resumes the downtrend from 104.11 peak, as fresh acceleration lower cleared 102, psychological / trendline support and found temporary footstep at 101.54. With the biggest part of 101.20/104.11 rally being already retraced, risk of retesting strong 101.20 base remain in play. Bears may be delayed as near-term studies are oversold, with initial 102 barrier being regained and rallies expected to find solid resistance at 102.65, previous support and 102.83, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.54, ahead of psychological 103 barrier, reinforced by double MA’s bear-cross, where rallies should be capped. Violation of 102.20 base is expected to open another key support at 100.74, low of 04 Feb 2014.

Res: 102.50; 102.65; 102.83; 103.00
Sup: 101.83; 101.54; 101.20; 100.74






AUDUSD

The pair the pair remains supported and moves higher after eventual break above near-term congestion tops at 0.93 triggered fresh extension of larger uptrend that commenced from 0.8658. Fresh bulls probed above bull-channel resistance and Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9755/0.8658 descend, on extension to 0.9385 so far, focusing psychological 0.9400 barrier and 0.9477, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the wave from 0.8889, 03 Mar higher low. However, overbought near-term studies see consolidative/corrective phase preceding fresh push higher. Initial support lies at 0.9330, ahead of more significant 0.9316, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9204/0.9385 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55SMA and 0.9300, previous range tops, where corrective dips should face good support.


Res: 0.9385; 0.9400; 0.9477; 0.9500
Sup: 0.9330; 0.9316; 0.9300; 0.9273






GOLD

Spot Gold remains supported and resumes recovery rally off 1277 low, after leaving higher base 1295. Fresh bulls tested next target at 1315, 25/26 Mar lower platform / daily Cloud top, above which to open 1319/21, daily 20SMA / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1392/1277 descend, with break here to confirm bottom at 1277 for further recovery. Positive near-term studies are supportive, with consolidative phase expected to precede fresh extension higher. Conolidation floor at 1306 offers immediate support, ahead of 1300/1297, psychological support / 200SMA and 1295 base, where stronger dips should ideally find footstep.

Res: 1315; 1321; 1334; 1342
Sup: 1306; 1300; 1297; 1295





SILVER

Spot Silver trades in near-term sideways mode after recovery attempts above initial 20.00 barrier failed to sustain break. Near-term studies are losing traction as upside attempts above psychological 20.00 barrier stalled at 20.14. Sustained break above current range top at 20.21, reinforced by daily 100SMA and regain of 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, is seen as minimum requirement to avert immediate downside risk and signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, increased downside risk will remain in play, as larger picture studies are bearish and 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 bearish cross, keeping the downside pressured. Completion of near-term consolidation expected to fresh weakness for final push towards short-term target at 18.99, 30 Jan low.

Res: 20.09; 20.17; 20.21; 20.40
Sup: 19.84; 19.77; 19.65; 19.56
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