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Old 02-04-14, 12:47
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Default Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EURUSD

The Euro’s near-term price action remains at 1.38 zone, following several attempts to break higher that formed hourly bullish pennant. Positive near-term studies, however, are supportive for further advance, with clearance of strong 1.38 hurdle, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704 descend and daily Kijun-sen line, seen as a trigger for fresh recovery towards 1.3835/45, lower tops / 50% retracement and 1.3756, bull trendline off 1.3965, with key near-term resistance at 1.3874, 24 Mar peak, expected to come in focus on a break. Alternatively, rejection at 1.38 zone would signal further congestion, while extension below higher platform at 1.3765, also mid-point of 1.3704/1.3814 upleg, would bring bears back in play.

Res: 1.3845; 1.3874; 1.3900; 1.3946
Sup: 1.3877; 1.3765; 1.3745; 1.3700






GBPUSD

Cable enters consolidative phase after fresh bulls peaked at 1.6685, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 descend. Strong support and breakpoint at 1.6600, so far stays intact, as the pullback was contained by daily cloud top at 1.6615 and subsequent bounce is under way. With near-term studies gaining traction, focus remains at 1.6685 peak, clearance of which and trendline resistance at 1.6730, to open next pivot at 1.6716, 13 Mar peak and signal eventual return to key barriers at 1.6784, 07 Mar high and 1.6821, 17 Feb 2014 high. Only loss of 1.66 handle would delay immediate bulls and risk stronger pullback.

Res: 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6730
Sup: 1.6615; 1.6600; 1.6574; 1.6548






USDJPY

The pair remains supported and eventually broke above key near-term barrier at 103.75, 07 Mar peak, fully retracing 103.75/101.19 descend. Formation of Three White Soldiers pattern on a daily chart suggests further upside, with break above psychological 104.00 barrier, expected to open 104.32, Fibonacci 76.4% of 105.43/100.74 descend and expose upper targets at 105 zone. However, bulls may be delayed by consolidative / corrective action, as near-term studies are overbought. Psychological 103 support, also 38.2% retracement of 101.71/103.92 upleg and higher platform at 102.80, also 50% retracement, are seen as ideal reversal points to keep near-term bulls intact.

Res: 104.00; 104.32; 104.83; 105.00
Sup: 103.59; 103.42; 103.00; 102.80





AUDUSD

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase off 0.9300 barrier, following repeated upside rejection. Near-term price action is entrenched within 0.9220/0.9300 range, with studies losing traction. This may signal deeper pullback, as hourly technicals are negative and 4-hour bearish momentum is building up. Break below initial 0.9220 support will be seen as initial signal, while loss of psychological 0.92 handle and 0.9184, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8994/0.9302 upleg, is required to confirm of near-term double-top pattern and expose 0.9148, 50% retracement / bull-trendline off 0.8923 low and previous congestion tops at 0.9135 zone, reinforced by 200SMA, where stronger pullback should be ideally contained. Overall bullish tone keeps the upside favored in the short-term

Res: 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400
Sup: 0.9220; 0.9200; 0.9184; 0.9148







GOLD

Spot Gold trades in extended consolidative phase off fresh low at 1277, signaling possible basing attempt. However, overall negative tone keeps the downside favored, as brief corrective attempts were capped by descending 10SMA at 1287. Break here is required to signal recovery, with notion being supported by oversold 4-hour conditions. Extension higher to open strong 1300 zone barrier, 200SMA / psychological resistance, above which stronger recovery action could be anticipated. Otherwise, completion of near-term consolidation and fresh extension of larger downtrend off 1392 peak, would be likely near-term scenario. Break below 1277 to open 1272, 100SMA and 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1182/1392, also daily Ichimoku cloud base.

Res: 1287; 1296; 1300; 1306
Sup: 1277; 1272; 1262; 1252






SILVER

Spot Silver trades in extended consolidative phase above fresh low at 19.56, posted on 27 Mar, with corrective action being so far capped under psychological 20.00 barrier, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA. Neutral hourly technicals favor further sideways movement, however, improving conditions on 4-hour chart do not rule out stronger recovery. Break above 20.00 barrier will be seen as initial signal, with regain of 20.20, required to confirm near-term base formation and open 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend. Conversely, loss of 19.56 handle to open interim supports at 19.30/11, 08 Jan 2014 / 19 Dec 2013 lows, for extension towards key support at 18.99, 30 Jan low, return to which to fully retrace 18.99/22/15 ascend.

Res: 20.00; 20.20; 20.40; 20.56
Sup: 19.62; 19.56; 19.30; 19.11
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