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Old 01-04-14, 11:54
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Default Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EURUSD

The Euro has established positive tone on hourly chart, consolidating 1.3704/1.3807 recovery rally, despite failure to clear important 1.38 barrier, where 4-hour 55SMA capped for now. However, prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart requires caution, as repeated upside rejection at 1.38 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3965/1.3704, would risk fresh leg lower and retest near-term base and daily cloud top at 1.37 zone. Break here to resume downtrend off 1.3965, otherwise, sustained break above 1.38 hurdle would open 1.3835, 50% retracement / daily 20SMA and pivotal 1.3874, 24 Mar peak / near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, above which to confirm formation of higher low at 1.3704 and shift focus towards 1.3946 and key 1.3965 resistance, peak of 13 Mar.

Res: 1.3807; 1.3845; 1.3874; 1.3900
Sup: 1.3760; 1.3721; 1.3700; 1.3662





GBPUSD

Cable continues to trend higher and broke above initial 1.6665 barrier to test 1.6685, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6821/1.6464 descend so far. Hourly studies are positive, while overextended 4-hour conditions and yesterday’s Doji candle, warn of possible stall. Sustained break above 1.6716/33, 13 Mar high / bear-trendline off 1.6821, is required to confirm bullish resumption and open 1.6784, 07 Mar peak and key 1.6821 barrier, 17 Feb year-to-date high. Corrective dips should be contained above 1.66 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6464/1.6685 upleg, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA, to keep bulls intact.

Res: 1.6685; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6733
Sup: 1.6655; 1.6638; 1.6600; 1.6574





USDJPY

The pair remains supported and aims towards key near-term barrier at 103.75, 07 Mar peak, to fully retrace 103.75/101.19 descend, after the price stabilizes above psychological 103 barrier, also daily cloud top. Near-term technicals are positive, however, 4-hour RSI enters overbought zone and may delay bulls. Neutral daily studies require break above 103.75, two-month congestion top, to bring fresh bulls in play. Initial supports lay at 103.00/102.88, with higher platform and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.71/103.42 upleg, offering solid support and seen as ideal reversal point for stronger dips.

Res: 103.42; 103.75; 104.00; 104.32
Sup: 103.00; 102.77; 102.67; 102.46





AUDUSD

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates after cracking psychological 0.9300 barrier. Near-term corrective action was contained above strong support at 0.9200, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9047/0.9294 upleg, keeping near-term bulls firmly in play for test of immediate targets at 0.9314, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave from 0.8894 and 0.9336, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend, break of which to confirm wave principles and open 0.9446, 19/20 Now 2013 peaks and 0.9477, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion. Only loss of 0.9200 base would delay bulls and expose strong supports at 0.9140 zone, previous peaks and 200SMA.

Res: 0.9302; 0.9314; 0.9336; 0.9400
Sup: 0.9254; 0.9215; 0.9200; 0.9170








GOLD

Spot Gold remains under strong pressure and resumes downtrend off 1392 peak, interrupted by 1285/1298 consolidative phase. With psychological 1300 barrier, also 200SMA, being established as strong resistance, fresh weakness through previous low at 1285, approaches dynamic support at 1273, daily 100SMA, with 1262, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend, coming in focus. Overall bearish tone keeps the downside favored, with consolidative /corrective action on oversold studies, seen preceding fresh weakness. Lower platform at 1300 is expected to limit upside attempts, while only sustained break here would put immediate bears on hold.

Res: 1290; 1300; 1306; 1316
Sup: 1277; 1273; 1262; 1252



SILVER

Spot Silver trades in extended consolidative phase above fresh low at 19.56, posted on 27 Mar, with corrective action being so far capped under psychological 20.00 barrier. Yesterday’s rejection at 20.00 hurdle and fresh slide below the range mid-point, keeps near-term studies in negative mode and maintains downside risk. Penetration through 19.56 handle to open interim supports at 19.30/11, 08 Jan 2014 / 19 Dec 2013 lows, for extension towards key support at 18.99, 30 Jan low, return to which to fully retrace 18.99/22/15 ascend. Only sustained break above 20.00 hurdle would sideline immediate bears and allow for stronger corrective action towards 201.19, 25 Mar high and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend.

Res: 19.91; 20.00; 20.20; 20.40
Sup: 19.62; 19.56; 19.30; 19.11
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