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Old 13-08-12, 09:30
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

EUR/USD
One week descend off 1.2440 double-top, has so far retraced exactly 50% of initial 1.2042/1.2240 upleg, with downside pressure seen on lower timeframes. Consolidation above last Friday’s 1.2240 low, was unable to clear 1.2300 barrier, as 55 day EMA capped the upside and near-term price action moving sideways. Immediate support lies at 1.2260, overnight’s low, ahead of 1.2240, key near-term level, below which to signal further extension lower, with significant support zone at 1.2220/00, along with Fib 61.8%, seen next. Near-term range’s high at 1.2315, offers initial barrier, while regain of 1.2350/1.2400 would reduce the downside risk.

Res: 1.2300, 1.2315, 1.2345, 1.2364
Sup: 1.2260, 1.2240, 1.2220, 1.2200





GBP/USD
The larger picture shows the pair entrenched within 1.5500/1.5760 range, with 200 day SMA keeping the upside protected, while daily studies showing slight improvement. Hourly outlook, however, holds positive tone, as last Friday’s rally touched psychological 1.5700 barrier, with series of higher highs, seeing potential for possible attack at the upper range boundaries. Corrective action should ideally find ground at 1.5640 zone, otherwise, risk of losing 1.5600 handle and possible revisiting 1.5570/50 support zone, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 1.5681, 1.5700, 1.5729, 1.5766
Sup: 1.5653, 1.5640, 1.5625, 1.5600




USD/JPY
Sideways movement and consolidation of short-term losses above 78.00, are shown on a daily chart, with studies in the negative territory and upside being capped at 78.80/79.20 zone, where also 200 day SMA lies. Clear break here is required to signal more serious action. More negative tone is seen on a lower timeframes, with hourly structure showing near-term correction on oversold conditions, with strong barrier seen at 78.40, where 4h 20/55 day EMA’s bearish crossover, keeps the pair under pressure. Fresh losses will be seen on potential loss of strong support and range bottom at 78.00 that is seen as a trigger for test of 77.65, 01 June low.

Res: 78.34, 78.45, 78.64, 78.78
Sup: 78.15, 78.00, 77.93, 77.65





USD/CHF
Short-term outlook remains positive, as the pair resumes its corrective move off 0.9654, 06 Aug low, with nearly 50% of 0.9970/0.9654 downmove seen on last Friday’s brief break above 0.9800 barrier. Near-term price action is in a consolidative mode, with important support at 0.9750 zone, also 20/55 day EMA’s, expected to hold the downside for fresh push higher, and near-term studies in the positive field. Immediate upside targets lie at 0.9800 zone, with clear break here required to resume rally towards 0.9850. Loss of 0.9750, however, would delay and turn the near-term structure negative.

Res: 0.9784, 0.9800, 0.9808, 0.9850
Sup: 0.9761, 0.9747, 0.9700, 0.9656

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