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Old 23-02-12, 14:40
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:00 GMT)

EUR/USD
Hourly structure remains neutral, as the price action still in a range-trading mode, with the downside protected at 1.3200 support zone for now. Brief bounce to 1.3280 so far, needs to clear minimum 1.3292, to improve the near-term outlook and expose key barrier at 1.3320, clearance of which to resume the uptrend from January’s low at 1.2622. Four-hour chart outlook, however, shows more positive tone and keeps focus at 1.3320 peak, with 20 day SMA at 1.3240, underpinning. On the downside, loss of consolidation floor at 1.3200 would weaken the near-term structure and allow for stronger pullback, with Fib 38.2% / 50% of 1.2973/1.3292 at 1.3170/1.3132, to come next.

Res: 1.3282, 1.3292, 1.3320, 1.3400
Sup: 1.3230, 1.3200, 1.3180, 1.3170





GBP/USD
The pair consolidates yesterday’s heavy losses that fully erased the near-term rally from 1.5650, double-bottom to 1.5880, where gains were capped. Attempt to make a new base at 1.5650, must regain minimum 1.5770, previous high / near Fib 50%, to avert immediate downside risk, as near-term studies are negative, with the latest bounce seen corrective. Clear break above 1.5800/13 is required to confirm. On the downside, loss of very strong support at 1.5650, to confirm lower top at 1.5880 and open fresh bear-phase and possibly repeat the scenario from Oct/Nov 2011, when repeated attempts to clear 200 day SMA at 1.6100/1.6000 zone failed and triggered significant losses to 1.5400 zone, initially.

Res: 1.5700, 1.5720, 1.5735, 1.5760
Sup: 1.5650, 1.5600, 1.5580, 1.5530





USD/JPY
Holds positive short-term tone off 76.00 base, with yesterday’s break above key med-term barrier and breakpoint at 80.23, looking for further recovery towards weekly 90 day SMA at 81.30. Hourly studies show the pair in corrective mode, while bigger picture remains firmly bullish and showing no signal reversal, despite daily RSI being in overbought zone. Supports lie at 80.00 and 79.88, 4H 20 day SMA, with 79.50 expected to contain.

Res: 80.23, 80.40, 80.50, 81.00
Sup: 80.00, 79.88, 79.60, 79.50





USD/CHF
Near-term structure turns negative after recovery attempt failed at initial resistance at 0.9150. Attempt to create base at 0.9100/0.9070 zone is now fading, as renewed pressure pushed the price to 0.9070 so far. Break here to signal an extension of short-term downtrend off 0.9593, Jan’s peak and expose 0.9000 and 0.8655, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8566/0.9593, Oct / Jan rally. Previous support at 0.9100 offers initial resistance, along with 20 day SMA at 0.9115, while 0.9150 is expected to cap for now.

Res: 0.9100, 0.9115, 0.9135, 0.9150
Sup: 0.9070, 0.9050, 0.9000, 0.8955

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