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Old 18-01-12, 14:33
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EUR/USD

The pair inched higher during the Asian session, but again failed to regain strong barrier at 1.2800, after yesterday’s gains were capped at 1.2800 zone, just under main bear-trendline and subsequent pullback found support above 1.2700 handle. Clearance of 1.2800/10 is required to resume bounce from 1.2622 and expose key near-term barriers at 1.2870/77, daily 20 day SMA that maintains bear-trend from early November 2011 and last Friday’s high, above which to confirm short-term bottom and open way for stronger recovery. On the downside, hourly 20 day SMA offers initial support at 1.2750, ahead of higher base at 1.2710 zone, loss of which would turn near-term tone bearish.

Res: 1.2786, 1.2808, 1.2844, 1.2877
Sup: 1.2750, 1.2716, 1.2710, 1.2700





GBP/USD

Weakens the near-term structure after recovery attempt from 1.5233, last Friday’s fresh 1 ½ year low, ran out of steam at strong resistance zone at 1.5400, 13 Jan high / Fib 38.2% of 1.5668/1.5233 descend. Descend from 1.5400 was contained above 1.5300, also broken bear-trendline, keeping hopes of fresh push towards 1.5400 barrier, break of which is required to continue correction for possible attempt towards key short-term resistance at 1.5500. Failure to sustain gains above 1.5300 and potential break below the latter, would suggest forming of double top and fresh weakness towards 1.5275/33.

Res: 1.5358, 1.5400, 1.5408, 1.5425
Sup: 1.5332, 1.5319, 1.5300, 1.5275





USD/JPY

Maintains negative short-term tone, after the recent failure to clear initial barrier at 77.00, triggered fresh weakness that tested key support at 76.50. Subsequent bounce keeps the latter intact for now, however, negative studies on 1 and 4H charts, keep the downside favored, with bounces towards 77.00 mark seen corrective for now. Only clear break above 77.20/32, daily 90 day SMA / 06 Jan high, would provide relief. On the downside, break below 76.50 to open 76.10/00 next.

Res: 76.73, 76.85, 77.00, 77.20
Sup: 76.62, 76.54, 76.10, 76.00





USD/CHF

Remains at the back foot after repeated failure to reclaim 0.9600 barrier sparked fresh weakness to 0.9445, also Fib 76.4% of 0.9405/0.9573 upleg, where losses were temporary contained. Subsequent recovery attempt was capped at initial barrier at 0.9520 and fresh descend under way, attempting at 0.9445, ahead of key near-term support at 0.9400, below which to open way for further easing and confirm short-term top. On the upside, 20 day SMA at 0.9500 offers initial resistance, ahead of 0.9523, yesterday’s high that is expected to cap the near-term price action, as near-term studies maintain negative tone.

Res: 0.9459, 0.9482, 0.9500, 0.9523
Sup: 0.9445, 0.9410, 0.9400, 0.9350

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