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Old 09-01-12, 15:42
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:45 GMT)

EUR/USD

The pair continues to trend lower after today’s gap lower opening extended losses to a fresh 16-month high at 1.2665. Bounce on oversold hourly conditions and break above hourly 20 day SMA, sees scope for further correction, however, strong resistance zone at 1.2857/66/72, 29 Dec low / Fib 50% of 1.3071/1.2665 / 2011 low, is expected to cap the upside for now. Key support area at 1.2600/1.2586, Fib 76.4% of 1.1875/1.4938 and 22 Aug 2010 low, remains in focus, with break here to signal fresh weakness and possible retest of next longer-term supports at 1.2455 and 1.2331, 2009/2008 lows, ahead of key level at 1.1875, 2010 low. Only firm break above 1.2900 would delay and allow for stronger correction.

Res: 1.2780, 1.2811, 1.2857, 1.2872
Sup: 1.2684, 1.2665, 1.2600, 1.2586





GBP/USD

Short-term price action maintains bearish tone, as the latest bear-leg off 1.5668, 03 Jan high, extended below 1.5400, to test 3-month range floor at 1.5360 zone. Corrective bounce is under way, with hourly studies regaining momentum. Initial barriers lie at 1.5466/75, 05/06 Jan lows, ahead of strong resistances at 1.5520, 06 Jan high / Fib 50% of 1.5668/1.5374 descend and bear trendline at 1.5550, that are expected to limit the upside. Break here would ease bear pressure and open way for stronger recovery towards 1.5600/68. On the downside, loss of 1.5360 to trigger fresh weakness and expose strong support at 1.5271, 2011 yearly low and Fib 50% of 1.3501/1.7041, 2009 rally.

Res: 1.5466, 1.5475, 1.5500, 1.5520
Sup: 1.5400, 1.5374, 1.5360, 1.5328





USD/JPY

The pair remains under pressure, as the latest recovery attempt from 76.59, 04 Jan low, just ahead of key support at 76.55, was capped by daily 90 day SMA and subsequent reversal extended below 77.00 mark. Risk is seen on retest of 76.55 support, loss of which to spark fresh weakness towards 76.00 and pre-intervention lows at 75.50. Only clearance of 77.32, 06 Jan high and 77.40, Fib 50% of 78.21/76.59 decline, would signal stronger recovery and keep the downside protected.

Res: 77.00, 77.32, 77.40, 77.60
Sup: 76.78, 76.59, 76.55, 76.10





USD/CHF

Break above 0.9545, previous high, posted on 15 Dec 2011, confirms the end of short-term corrective phase and signals a resumption of broader uptrend. Gains tested levels just under 0.9600 barrier, break of which to open 0.9700 and strong barriers at 0.9743/73, Feb 2011 highs, ahead of 0.9782, yearly high. Corrective pullback on overbought hourlies, faces initial support at 0.9500, ahead of 0.9485, 20 day SMA, also Fib 38.2% of 0.9303/0.9593 upleg.

Res: 0.9564, 0.9577, 0.9593, 0.9600
Sup: 0.9500, 0.9485, 0.9468, 0.9413

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