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Old 05-10-11, 07:09
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:30 GMT)

EUR/USD

Corrects the latest bear leg from 1.3677, 29 Sep high that hit fresh 9-month low at 1.3145 yesterday. Recovery was initially capped just under main near-term barrier at 1.3380, with subsequent pullback being contained at 1.3260, hourly 20 day MA. According to the wave principles, current wave ‘c’ of the fall from 1.4548, should extend to 1.3465, where Fib 61.8% of 1.3377/1.3145 downmove lies. Hourly studies remain supportive, however, daily outlook shows bears firmly in play, with 1.3000 in short-term focus.

Res: 1.3368, 1.3380, 1.3400, 1.3465
Sup: 1.3282, 1.3260, 1.3232, 1.3168




GBP/USD

Bounce from yesterday’s low at 1.5339, just above key short-term support at 1.5326, regained initial barrier at 1.5465, extending to the levels just under 1.5500 handle, over Fib 38.2% retracement of 1.5714/1.5339 descend, where gains stalled. Corrective pullback found support at 1.5411, with hourly 20 day MA maintaining near-term positive tone. Upside clearance of 1.5500 is required to resume near-term recovery and expose 1.5530/40, initial barriers, ahead of Fibonacci level at 1.5570 and 03 Oct high at 1.5585, to possibly signal a double bottom. Wider picture’s outlook, however, remains bearish, with break below 1.5326 to resume weakness from 1.6617 and expose next significant support at 1.5295, 05 Sep 2010 low.

Res: 1.5494, 1.5500, 1.5530, 1.5542
Sup: 1.5411, 1.5369, 1.5326, 1.5295




USD/JPY

Yesterday’s fresh attack at 77.00 barrier was unsuccessful again, as gains stalled at 76.97 and returned to the previous range. Hourly and 4-hour studies continue to hover around their midlines, with 20 day MA, currently at 76.80, capping the upside. Clear break above 77.00 is required to trigger stronger action and move the pair out of the recent range, with regain of minimum 78.00 level to confirm. On the downside, initial support lies at 76.50, while loss of key levels at 76.00/75.93 to open fresh phase lower.

Res: 76.97, 77.09, 77.27, 77.68
Sup: 76.50, 76.41, 76.32, 76.10





USD/CHF

Maintains short-term positive tone after yesterday’s reversal from 0.9260, fresh 5-month high, was contained at 0.9145, also previous high posted on 26 Sep. Subsequent bounce regained 0.9200 handle, regaining momentum for fresh attack at 0.9260, above which to resume bull phase from Aug record low at 0.7067 and focus 0.9338, 27 Mar high and 0.9400, Fibonacci level. On the downside, 0.9145 offers initial support and potential break here to weaken the near-term structure in favor of deeper pullback, likely to 0.8920, key short-term support.

Res: 0.9232, 0.9247, 0.9260, 0.9300
Sup: 0.9180, 0.9145, 0.9127, 0.9100

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