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Old 04-08-11, 12:44
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (14:00 GMT)

EUR/USD

Failure to regain bear trendline, drawn off 1.4536 at 1.4380, has triggered fresh weakness and extension of the short-term downtrend from 1.4536, 27 July high. The latest fall from 1.4371, yesterday’s high, has nearly fully retraced 1.4142/1.4371 ascend, hitting 1.4151 low so far. Loss of 1.4142 support would confirm lower top at 1.4371 and signal further extension lower, with 1.4100 zone, Fib 61.8% of 1.3836/1.4536 upleg / bear-channel support, seen next, ahead of 1.4013, 17 July low, below which brings 1.3836, 12 July low in focus. Hourly 20 day MA, currently at 1.4290, maintains the near-term bear-tone, while only regain of 1.4371 barrier would improves.


Res: 1.4206, 1.4262, 1.4278, 1.4300
Sup: 1.4142, 1.4107, 1.4093, 1.4067




GBP/USD

Trades in a near-term consolidative mode, after short-term gains stalled at 1.6474 on 01 Aug. Corrective pullback has so far been contained at 1.6223 on 02 Aug, with broader picture still keeping bullish structure intact. Holding above 1.6223, 02 Aug low / daily 55 day MA, keeps focus at 1.6474, above which opens 1.6500/46 barriers. Loss of 1.6223, however, would risk deeper correction and expose 1.6207, Fib 38.2% of 1.5779/1.6474 upleg.

Res: 1.6370, 1.6395, 1.6438, 1.6474
Sup: 1.6310, 1.6285, 1.6250, 1.6223




USD/JPY

Extended strong rally after this morning’s intervention, surging from 77.00 zone, to reach levels above 80.00. Regain of previous lows at 79.55/68 has improved the near-term outlook and turned focus towards 81.00/46, next upside barriers. Corrective pullback on overbought hourly conditions is under way, with reversal above 78.00 zone required to maintain near-term positive tone.

Res: 79.55, 79.68, 80.00, 80.23
Sup: 78.72, 78.25, 78.03, 77.80




USD/CHF

The recent recovery from the fresh record low at 0.7608 regained initial barrier at 0.7800, with signal of potential stronger recovery, as daily studies are extremely extended. Next important barrier lies at 0.7855, above which to open 0.7900/55. Corrective pullback on overbought hourlies is under way, with reversal required above 0.7680 to maintain near-term bullish stance, otherwise it would signal a return to broader bear-trend and re-focus 0.7608, historical low, posted on 03 Aug.

Res: 0.7781, 0.7800, 0.7855, 0.7904
Sup: 0.7690, 0.7680, 0.7634, 0.7608

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