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Old 17-05-11, 06:11
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Default Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

EUR/USD

Maintains positive near-term tone from 1.4046, yesterday’s fresh 7-week low, after recovery attempt stalled at 1.4243 and subsequent pullback found support at 1.4144. Break above 4-hour 20 day MA at 1.4180 and major trendline connecting historical high of 2008 and 2009 peak, that has been lost, is required to open way for fresh attempt at initial resistance at 1.4243, ahead of 1.4338, 13 May high, clearance of which would signal near-term base and expose 1.4420/40, 11/09 May highs and over Fib 38.2% retracement of 1.4938/1.4046 downleg. Failure to clear 1.4243, however, would risk lower top and resumption of 2-week downtrend, with loss of 1.4046 to focus 1.4020 and 1.3980.

Res: 1.4200, 1.4243, 1.4260, 1.4305
Sup: 1.4128, 1.4090, 1.4046, 1.4020





GBP/USD

Short-term downtrend from 1.6745/37, fresh annual highs and highest levels since Nov 2009, has found temporary ground at 1.6145. Near-term recovery is looking for break above 1.6240/53, 4-hour 20 day MA / yesterday’s high, to signal further correction and open 1.6270/85, 09 May low / Fib 38.2% of 1.6516/1.6145 decline, with possible test of key near-term resistance zone at 1.6300/20 seen on a break. On the downside, significant support lies at 1.6155, trendline support off 1.5935, 28 Mar low, ahead of 1.6145, loss of which resumes broader downtrend and opens 1.6125, Fib 76.4% of 1.5935/1.6745 ascend and 1.6090, 05 May low.

Res: 1.6253, 1.6286, 1.6307, 1.6320
Sup: 1.6173, 1.6155, 1.6145, 1.6125





USD/JPY

Maintains short-term positive structure off 79.55, 05 May low, after recovery failure at 81.30 zone and subsequent reversal finding support at 80.33, just ahead of key near-term support at 80.15. Fresh gains broke above 81.33 previous high, signaling further recovery towards 81.68, 02 May high, ahead of Fib 38.2% of 85.50/79.55 downleg at 81.85 and daily 55 day MA at 82.00. Break here is required to open way towards key near-term barriers at 82.80 and 83.09. Yesterday’s low at 80.69, underpins the advance, with potential corrective pullback of overbought hourly conditions expected to hold above 81.00 to maintain immediate bull-tone.

Res: 81.68, 81.85, 82.00, 82.80
Sup: 81.03, 80.69, 80.33, 80.15




USD/CHF
Has retraced Fib 38.2% of the recent recovery leg from 0.8550, 04 May record low, after clearance of 0.8900 barrier failed to sustain gains, stalling at 0.8944. Sharp reversal has so far found support at 0.8798, last Friday’s low, with fresh attempt higher under way. Break above 20 day MA on 4-hour chart at 0.8868 is now required to open 0.8900/44 for retest and above here to continue short-term recovery towards key barrier at 0.9006. Holding above 0.8800 keeps immediate bulls in play, while closing below here would signal temporary top at 0.8944 and allow for stronger reversal.

Res: 0.8868, 0.8900, 0.8944, 0.8960
Sup : 0.8798, 0.8781, 0.8706, 0.8675

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